Nail Biter!

1100HST, On Transpac Row in the Ala Wai Basin, Cloud Cover 30 percent, Clouds of vertical development over land, Distance 24 hrs, 0.00 DTF 0.00.

Is what we have!

The Race Crew think this is over. After all they have put their numbers up on the Big Board. Now all they have to do is nurse some (probably) heavy heads.

But for us Bean Counters back at Plan B Central the race continues.

You might recall after LBC Ben's handicap corrections epiphany, referred to in the New Math News Flash (NMNF) posted below, I observed that our team had a faint hope to correct over the (Blood) Hounds, up to second, in Division 6.

Since then, and fueled by a strong run for the roses down the Molokai Channel yesterday, that flicker of hope is strengthened because this morning Transpac estimated that our Plan B is likely to prevail on time by about 80 minutes!

But I am from Missouri so I have been doing the math (Ben check it). At 0300HST this morning (0600PDT check in) the hounds were still 97 miles out to sea. For that 24 hours period they covered a distance of 171 nm for an average speed of 7.1 knots. In the last 15.78 hours to the finish yesterday Plan B managed the remaining 144 miles for an average of 9.13 knots for an implied 24 hours distance of 219 nm and a speed delta of 2.03 knots vis-a-vis the Hounds.

I'm not sure if I can extend their last 15 plus hours on course out that way or if we actually needed a little more race track to make it work.

If you refer back to the NMNF post below you will find that I indicated Plan B needed "to pull out roughly another 50 miles" to save their time.

The difference between Plan B's implied daily run and the Hounds actual daily run is 48.72 miles so naturally I find myself a little more interested than "roughly" now.

Here is some more information for my readers consideration:

Plan B has generally extended away from the Hounds for the last week (since the wind came back) of the race. Not including yesterday they have averaged a little less than a 23 mile longer daily runs. Their biggest 24 hour gain was 41 nm.

The Hounds are doublehanded and we can hope they are getting tired and therefore slower by now. But doublehanded is also light and light is fast.

The hounds have the normally boisterous Molokai Channel to the finish still ahead of them and it should be anticipated that their average speed will increase as the rest of the race unfolds.

At the Hounds 100 mile check-in they estimated an ETA at the finish of 1600 HST - 60 minutes safe for them on time.

The Hounds need to finish before 1700.41HST to correct over Plan B meaning they need to cover the remaining 97 miles since this mornings check in 14 hours and 41 seconds or an average of just less than 7 knots.

At 0700HST they had covered 30 miles of that distance for an average of 7.5 knot and remained 67 miles away from the finish line reducing their needed average speed to about 6.7 knots.

The breakdown looks like this:

0800HST - DST 60.3nm
0900HST - DST 53.6nm
1000HST - DST 46.9nm
1100HST - DST 40.2nm
1200HST - DST 33.5nm
1300HST - DST 26.8 nm
1400HST - DST 20.1nm
1500HST - DST 13.4nm
1600HST - DST 6.7nm
1701HST - DST 0.0nm

If, when we look at the hourly Tracker updates (don't forget they are 4 hours delayed) for a set time, and the Hounds DTF is greater than the miles indicated on the schedule above then Plan B is ahead. Less of course indicates and advantage to the Hounds.

While not ready to concede yet, at this point, it does look likely that the Hounds may manage to correct out.

So much depends on the velocity of the winds in the normally (and unfortunately for our team) blustery Molokai Channel this afternoon.

There is a drama unfolding on the high seas of Molokai this afternoon and everything points towards a close finish, corrected time style, culminating at 1700.41HST today.

Stay tuned!

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