Cap't Billy's math looks good to me. At this point, it's too close to call. I just don't know what information/data can be considered valid. Too many delays and unknowns. The good news is they still haven't posted a 25 mile time for Bloodhound. Cap't Billy's breakdown shows that the 'hounds need to be at the 25 mile point just after 1300 HST or 1600 PDT. Well, that was over an hour ago and still no time posted. Does that mean they aren't there yet or is it just a delayed posting? It is definitely going to be a close one.
All I can say is I am always amazed that two boats can race over such long distances and their corrected times end up being so close. Those handicappers must be doing something right! Whatever happens, it looks like both boats were sailed extremely well. But my money is still on Narrow Escape.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Nail Biter!
1100HST, On Transpac Row in the Ala Wai Basin, Cloud Cover 30 percent, Clouds of vertical development over land, Distance 24 hrs, 0.00 DTF 0.00.
Is what we have!
The Race Crew think this is over. After all they have put their numbers up on the Big Board. Now all they have to do is nurse some (probably) heavy heads.
But for us Bean Counters back at Plan B Central the race continues.
You might recall after LBC Ben's handicap corrections epiphany, referred to in the New Math News Flash (NMNF) posted below, I observed that our team had a faint hope to correct over the (Blood) Hounds, up to second, in Division 6.
Since then, and fueled by a strong run for the roses down the Molokai Channel yesterday, that flicker of hope is strengthened because this morning Transpac estimated that our Plan B is likely to prevail on time by about 80 minutes!
But I am from Missouri so I have been doing the math (Ben check it). At 0300HST this morning (0600PDT check in) the hounds were still 97 miles out to sea. For that 24 hours period they covered a distance of 171 nm for an average speed of 7.1 knots. In the last 15.78 hours to the finish yesterday Plan B managed the remaining 144 miles for an average of 9.13 knots for an implied 24 hours distance of 219 nm and a speed delta of 2.03 knots vis-a-vis the Hounds.
I'm not sure if I can extend their last 15 plus hours on course out that way or if we actually needed a little more race track to make it work.
If you refer back to the NMNF post below you will find that I indicated Plan B needed "to pull out roughly another 50 miles" to save their time.
The difference between Plan B's implied daily run and the Hounds actual daily run is 48.72 miles so naturally I find myself a little more interested than "roughly" now.
Here is some more information for my readers consideration:
Plan B has generally extended away from the Hounds for the last week (since the wind came back) of the race. Not including yesterday they have averaged a little less than a 23 mile longer daily runs. Their biggest 24 hour gain was 41 nm.
The Hounds are doublehanded and we can hope they are getting tired and therefore slower by now. But doublehanded is also light and light is fast.
The hounds have the normally boisterous Molokai Channel to the finish still ahead of them and it should be anticipated that their average speed will increase as the rest of the race unfolds.
At the Hounds 100 mile check-in they estimated an ETA at the finish of 1600 HST - 60 minutes safe for them on time.
The Hounds need to finish before 1700.41HST to correct over Plan B meaning they need to cover the remaining 97 miles since this mornings check in 14 hours and 41 seconds or an average of just less than 7 knots.
At 0700HST they had covered 30 miles of that distance for an average of 7.5 knot and remained 67 miles away from the finish line reducing their needed average speed to about 6.7 knots.
The breakdown looks like this:
0800HST - DST 60.3nm
0900HST - DST 53.6nm
1000HST - DST 46.9nm
1100HST - DST 40.2nm
1200HST - DST 33.5nm
1300HST - DST 26.8 nm
1400HST - DST 20.1nm
1500HST - DST 13.4nm
1600HST - DST 6.7nm
1701HST - DST 0.0nm
If, when we look at the hourly Tracker updates (don't forget they are 4 hours delayed) for a set time, and the Hounds DTF is greater than the miles indicated on the schedule above then Plan B is ahead. Less of course indicates and advantage to the Hounds.
While not ready to concede yet, at this point, it does look likely that the Hounds may manage to correct out.
So much depends on the velocity of the winds in the normally (and unfortunately for our team) blustery Molokai Channel this afternoon.
There is a drama unfolding on the high seas of Molokai this afternoon and everything points towards a close finish, corrected time style, culminating at 1700.41HST today.
Stay tuned!
Bloggermeister
Is what we have!
The Race Crew think this is over. After all they have put their numbers up on the Big Board. Now all they have to do is nurse some (probably) heavy heads.
But for us Bean Counters back at Plan B Central the race continues.
You might recall after LBC Ben's handicap corrections epiphany, referred to in the New Math News Flash (NMNF) posted below, I observed that our team had a faint hope to correct over the (Blood) Hounds, up to second, in Division 6.
Since then, and fueled by a strong run for the roses down the Molokai Channel yesterday, that flicker of hope is strengthened because this morning Transpac estimated that our Plan B is likely to prevail on time by about 80 minutes!
But I am from Missouri so I have been doing the math (Ben check it). At 0300HST this morning (0600PDT check in) the hounds were still 97 miles out to sea. For that 24 hours period they covered a distance of 171 nm for an average speed of 7.1 knots. In the last 15.78 hours to the finish yesterday Plan B managed the remaining 144 miles for an average of 9.13 knots for an implied 24 hours distance of 219 nm and a speed delta of 2.03 knots vis-a-vis the Hounds.
I'm not sure if I can extend their last 15 plus hours on course out that way or if we actually needed a little more race track to make it work.
If you refer back to the NMNF post below you will find that I indicated Plan B needed "to pull out roughly another 50 miles" to save their time.
The difference between Plan B's implied daily run and the Hounds actual daily run is 48.72 miles so naturally I find myself a little more interested than "roughly" now.
Here is some more information for my readers consideration:
Plan B has generally extended away from the Hounds for the last week (since the wind came back) of the race. Not including yesterday they have averaged a little less than a 23 mile longer daily runs. Their biggest 24 hour gain was 41 nm.
The Hounds are doublehanded and we can hope they are getting tired and therefore slower by now. But doublehanded is also light and light is fast.
The hounds have the normally boisterous Molokai Channel to the finish still ahead of them and it should be anticipated that their average speed will increase as the rest of the race unfolds.
At the Hounds 100 mile check-in they estimated an ETA at the finish of 1600 HST - 60 minutes safe for them on time.
The Hounds need to finish before 1700.41HST to correct over Plan B meaning they need to cover the remaining 97 miles since this mornings check in 14 hours and 41 seconds or an average of just less than 7 knots.
At 0700HST they had covered 30 miles of that distance for an average of 7.5 knot and remained 67 miles away from the finish line reducing their needed average speed to about 6.7 knots.
The breakdown looks like this:
0800HST - DST 60.3nm
0900HST - DST 53.6nm
1000HST - DST 46.9nm
1100HST - DST 40.2nm
1200HST - DST 33.5nm
1300HST - DST 26.8 nm
1400HST - DST 20.1nm
1500HST - DST 13.4nm
1600HST - DST 6.7nm
1701HST - DST 0.0nm
If, when we look at the hourly Tracker updates (don't forget they are 4 hours delayed) for a set time, and the Hounds DTF is greater than the miles indicated on the schedule above then Plan B is ahead. Less of course indicates and advantage to the Hounds.
While not ready to concede yet, at this point, it does look likely that the Hounds may manage to correct out.
So much depends on the velocity of the winds in the normally (and unfortunately for our team) blustery Molokai Channel this afternoon.
There is a drama unfolding on the high seas of Molokai this afternoon and everything points towards a close finish, corrected time style, culminating at 1700.41HST today.
Stay tuned!
Bloggermeister
"The Mother of All Evil"
0800HST, On Transpac Row in the Ala Wai Basin, Wind 040 @ 8 knots, Sea rippled, Cloud Cover 60 percent, marine scud, Distance 24 hrs, 0.00 DTF 0.00.
The scrutineers have been crunching the numbers all night and the Directors at Narrow Escape/Plan B World Headquarters are now pleased to announce the winner of Estimated Time of Arrival Pool.
Congratulations go to Mommy (Verna) Evil (Kimmerly) whose arrival time estimate most closely matched Narrow Escape's actual finish time Last Night.
The Racing Crew will present MVEK with her award (probably a Narrow Escape Tee-Shirt that is the wrong size) at a proper ceremony after they return home.
There will be just no living with her after this!
Blogmeister
NB: Your Blogmeister, Cap't Billy, was First Princess.
The scrutineers have been crunching the numbers all night and the Directors at Narrow Escape/Plan B World Headquarters are now pleased to announce the winner of Estimated Time of Arrival Pool.
Congratulations go to Mommy (Verna) Evil (Kimmerly) whose arrival time estimate most closely matched Narrow Escape's actual finish time Last Night.
The Racing Crew will present MVEK with her award (probably a Narrow Escape Tee-Shirt that is the wrong size) at a proper ceremony after they return home.
There will be just no living with her after this!
Blogmeister
NB: Your Blogmeister, Cap't Billy, was First Princess.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Goterdone!
1847.17 HST, Wind 20 @ 090, Barometer 1016, Cloud cover 20 percent, Sea 1 foot, low easterly swell, DTF 0.00.
So long anticipated - so soon over.
And for Chuggy and Evil there is only one first time and like the first times in other arenas they always occupy a special place in our memories.
A race breakdown and wrap up will follow tomorrow.
We're proud of our boys!
Cap't Billy, Blogmeister from Plan B Worldwide Headquarters
So long anticipated - so soon over.
And for Chuggy and Evil there is only one first time and like the first times in other arenas they always occupy a special place in our memories.
A race breakdown and wrap up will follow tomorrow.
We're proud of our boys!
Cap't Billy, Blogmeister from Plan B Worldwide Headquarters
Revised Estimated Finsh Time
1845 HST.
They must now be plainly in sight.
15 minutes and home.
Sleep on a bed that doesn't move tonight (I know it's not ideal but life is about compromise)
BlogGrinder
They must now be plainly in sight.
15 minutes and home.
Sleep on a bed that doesn't move tonight (I know it's not ideal but life is about compromise)
BlogGrinder
Chasing that Sunset.
1752 HST - Transpac Committee reports Narrow Escape abeam Makapuu - Check.
And I only stopped off for one Mai Tai at Hammers and bang they are here!
So soon now.
Check back,
Grinder
And I only stopped off for one Mai Tai at Hammers and bang they are here!
So soon now.
Check back,
Grinder
25 Miles and Counting!
At 1625HST Transpac received a message from Narrow Escape advising them that our boys had crossed an imaginary line on the ocean - its actually quite clear on the Computer - indicating they are now only 25 miles away from the finish line at Diamond Head.
In all to short a time the crew of Plan B will return to the land.
For those who love the ocean and the peace found there it is always a difficult transition.
Natures spectacle, in honour of there finish, will only make it more so.
But their loved ones will be there to greet them on the dock and the next phase of the Transpac - the Aloha Experience begins.
Over the years Transpac has embraced this Hawaiian Tradition which is found so effective at smoothing the rough spots of coming ashore.
As for the crew of Plan B. The Aloha Tradition will find them willing contestants for sure!
Mahalo to Plan B sponsors, Honolulu Sail and Power Squadron, who will care for our team in Hawaii!
In all to short a time the crew of Plan B will return to the land.
For those who love the ocean and the peace found there it is always a difficult transition.
Natures spectacle, in honour of there finish, will only make it more so.
But their loved ones will be there to greet them on the dock and the next phase of the Transpac - the Aloha Experience begins.
Over the years Transpac has embraced this Hawaiian Tradition which is found so effective at smoothing the rough spots of coming ashore.
As for the crew of Plan B. The Aloha Tradition will find them willing contestants for sure!
Mahalo to Plan B sponsors, Honolulu Sail and Power Squadron, who will care for our team in Hawaii!
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